Can Roger Federer Finally Win A Davis Cup

The average team wins at home 63 percent of the time and on the road just 37 percent of the time. But the differential is much smaller for France and even smaller for Switzerland. In fact, France lost the past two finals it hosted, in 1999 and 2002.Andrew Flowers contributed to the analysis of data supplied by the International Tennis Federation. This story appears in ESPN The Magazine’s Nov. 24 The State of Football Issue. The farther Cup teams have to travel, the worse they perform (though traveling between 501 and 1,000 miles seems particularly tough). Luckily for Roger & Co.: Lille is just 325 miles from the Swiss capital of Bern, minimizing the French advantage. Roger Federer holds a record 17 Grand Slam titles, but there’s one trophy he’s still itching to lift: the Davis Cup. Starting Friday, he gets his best chance yet. In his first Davis Cup final, the 33-year-old ace and his Swiss teammates will battle the French in Lille, France.Yes, playing away from home significantly diminishes the win probability for the Swiss. And because Davis Cup rules dictate that the host country gets to choose the playing surface, Federer will be forced to compete on clay, his least favorite type of court — without much practice, after a back problem kept him sidelined until a short session Wednesday.But the good news for Federer is that Lille is a
 lot closer to home than Melbourne, where he lost to the Australians in 2003, the only other time he made a Cup semifinal. Plus, Switzerland is one of a handful of major teams to maintain a winning Cup road record since the modern era began in 1972.Of course, the second-ranked Federer is simply better most days than any of his Lille opponents. (France is led by No. 12 Jo-Wilfried Tsonga.) And he’s so popular globally that he takes home-court advantage with him when he travels. Consider Roland Garros. “When he plays a French player,” says France’s Gilles Simon, “[the crowd] is 50-50, and I’m like, ‘Guys, what’s going on?’ ”The Swiss aren’t likely to feel that much love in Lille. But they still have plenty on their side to get the job done. Here’s a closer look at the factors in their favor. Federer’s 37–7 Davis Cup singles record is even more impressive when you consider that he’s been even better on the road than at home—especially in Europe, where he’s won his past 15 matches. read more

Kenley Jansen Is Too Busy Helping The Dodgers Win To Get Saves

Seung-hwan OhSTL1944+1.3 Dario AlvarezTEX201+0.3 Robby ScottBOS228-0.4 Tanner ScheppersTEX101+0.2 Hansel RoblesNYM422-0.2 Tony WatsonPIT1664+0.1 Jason GrilliTOR332-0.6 Alex Colome23259105 Alex ColomeTB2352+1.7 Anthony SwarzakCHW1000+1.5 Mychal GivensBAL1223+1.2 Gabriel YnoaBAL001+0.0 Rubby De La RosaARI011-0.4 Addison Reed2115568 Source: Baseball-REFERENCE.COM Neftali FelizMIL850-0.7 Daniel CoulombeOAK123-0.6 Sergio RomoLAD230-0.8 Boone LoganCLE003+0.0 Greg Hollland1828141 Casey LawrenceTOR010-0.4 Wade DavisCHC1501+2.2 Johnny BarbatoPIT010-0.4 Brandon KintzlerMIN1932+1.8 Tony CingraniCIN423-0.2 Raisel Iglesias21161065 Asher WojciechowskiCIN100+0.1 Brad PeacockHOU101+0.2 Darren O’DayBAL832+0.2 Brandon Maurer1519246 James PazosSEA924+0.6 Brad Hand232131510 Chad QuallsCOL210+0.0 Rafael MonteroNYM131-1.0 Miguel CastroBAL101+0.2 Will HarrisHOU1630+1.3 Tyler PillNYM010-0.4 Cody AllenCLE1242+0.5 Domingo GermanNYY010-0.4 Edwin Diaz2113668 Jumbo DiazTB643-0.6 Ryne StanekTB013-0.4 Chad BellDET001+0.0 Jorge De La RosaARI1041+0.1 Hector RondonCHC721+0.3 Stefan CrichtonBAL010-0.4 Yusmeiro PetitLAA1012+1.2 Aroldis ChapmanNYY602+1.0 Brett CecilSTL1322+1.1 Joakim SoriaKC1942+1.5 Peter MoylanKC403+0.6 Ryan DullOAK422-0.1 Jonathan BroxtonSTL120-0.6 Mike MontgomeryCHC1211+1.4 Jeurys FamiliaNYM412+0.2 Keone KelaTEX831+0.2 Jacob BarnesMIL1843+1.2 Blaine HardyDET121-0.6 Adam ConleyMIA010-0.4 Erasmo RamirezTB712+0.7 Source: Baseball-REFERENCE.COM Jose AlvarezLAA553-1.1 Alex ClaudioTEX625+0.2 Chris DevenskiHOU1663+0.2 Craig KimbrelBOS1920+2.3 Trevor RosenthalSTL1661+0.1 Luke GregersonHOU632-0.2 Nick WittgrenMIA611+0.5 Jandel GustaveHOU010-0.4 Warwick SaupoldDET012-0.4 Austin BriceCIN300+0.4 Juan NicasioPIT846-0.3 Justin GrimmCHC201+0.3 Scott ObergCOL613+0.6 Roberto Osuna1622033 Emilio PaganSEA110-0.2 Felipe RiveroPIT2722+3.2 J. C. RamirezLAA020-0.7 Enny RomeroWSH1336+0.8 Kirby YatesLAA/SD321-0.3 Fernando SalasNYM554-1.2 Daniel HudsonPIT444-0.9 Nick VincentSEA1214+1.5 Kenley Jansen25211089 Scott AlexanderKC320-0.3 Ryan MadsonOAK1231+0.7 Frankie MontasOAK110-0.2 Andrew MillerCLE2531+3.0 Taylor RogersMIN1323+1.3 Marc RzepczynskiSEA404+0.6 Craig Kimbrel1923566 Brad BrachBAL2130+2.2 Pedro StropCHC1113+1.2 Bryan ShawCLE1122+1.1 Casey FienSEA/PHI320-0.3 J. J. HooverARI622+0.2 Vidal NunoBAL010-0.4 Oliver DrakeMIL421-0.2 Tommy KahnleCHW1171-0.9 Grant DaytonLAD112-0.2 Joe SmithTOR1411+1.8 Fernando RodneyARI1943+1.4 Cam BedrosianLAA613+0.5 Shane GreeneDET1033+0.4 Blake ParkerLAA1031+0.4 Matt AlbersWSH924+0.6 Luke JacksonATL100+0.1 Ryan BuchterSD1252-0.1 Felipe Rivero276111312 Danny FarquharTB832+0.1 Derek LawSF1131+0.5 Chase WhitleyTB641-0.6 Chasen ShreveNYY622+0.2 Bryan MorrisSF300+0.4 Greg HollandCOL1820+2.2 Brandon MaurerSD1570-0.5 Kevin SiegristSTL811+0.8 Chris RusinCOL823+0.6 Ben HellerNYY001+0.0 Josh CollmenterATL020-0.7 FIREMAN APPEARANCES Jake McGeeCOL832+0.2 Matt BarnesBOS1053-0.2 Steve CishekSEA211-0.1 Sam DysonTEX/SF1271-0.8 Richard BleierBAL311+0.1 Wade LeBlancPIT132-1.0 Zach PutnamCHW200+0.3 Jhan MarinezMIL/PIT320-0.3 The Dodgers have managed Jansen’s opportunities smartly, but he also deserves credit for making the most of every one of them — literally. Jansen has 25 goose eggs on the season, but no broken eggs, our term for when a pitcher enters the game with an opportunity to earn a goose egg but is charged with at least one earned run instead.1Jansen does have one “meh,” which is when a pitcher enters the game in a goose situation but is awarded neither a goose egg nor a broken egg because a run was scored yet not charged to the reliever. The record for most goose eggs in a season without a broken egg is held by Brad Lidge, who had 34 goose eggs and no broken eggs in 2008.As a result of this perfect conversion rate, Jansen leads baseball with 3.6 goose wins above replacement (GWAR) and is on pace for 6.5 GWAR, which would make for one of the top half-dozen relief pitching seasons of all time. Rivero and Miller are second and third in GWAR this season. You can find goose-egg statistics for these and all other relief pitchers in the sortable table below. Wandy PeraltaCIN1020+0.7 Dustin McGowanMIA201+0.3 AJ RamosMIA1132+0.4 Cory GearrinSF721+0.3 Corey Knebel2614698 Addison ReedNYM2143+1.5 Chase De JongSEA010-0.4 Deolis GuerraLAA720+0.3 Mike DunnCOL602+1.0 Arodys VizcainoATL1652+0.5 Tony ZychSEA432-0.5 Jose TorresSD231-0.8 John BrebbiaSTL001+0.0 Luis GarciaPHI611+0.5 Steven OkertSF637-0.3 Tyler ClippardNYY486-2.3 Austin PruittTB300+0.5 Liam HendriksOAK731+0.0 Kyle BarracloughMIA1031+0.3 Oliver PerezWSH514+0.4 Joe BiaginiTOR432-0.5 Shawn KelleyWSH620+0.1 Josh OsichSF224-0.5 Pat NeshekPHI1613+2.0 Jordan LylesCOL210+0.0 Brandon Kintzler1924222 Josh SmokerNYM722+0.3 Tom WilhelmsenARI112-0.2 Ross StriplingLAD641-0.6 George KontosSF743-0.5 Randall DelgadoARI500+0.8 Dominic LeoneTOR323-0.3 Brian DuensingCHC300+0.4 Fernando Rodney1922035 Junichi TazawaMIA220-0.5 Adam WarrenNYY521+0.1 Joely RodriguezPHI524+0.0 PITCHERGOOSE EGGSSAVESMULTI-INNINGRUNNERS ONTIE GAMES Rob ScahillMIL110-0.2 Roberto OsunaTOR1641+1.1 Danny BarnesTOR621+0.2 Evan ScribnerSEA020-0.7 Justin WilsonDET1940+1.5 Diego MorenoTB010-0.4 Parker BridwellLAA001+0.0 FIREMAN APPEARANCES Mike MinorKC1621+1.8 Matt GraceWSH112-0.2 Drew StorenCIN322-0.3 Joaquin BenoitPHI1370-0.7 Aaron LoupTOR326-0.3 Jerry BlevinsNYM1246+0.2 Jared HughesMIL811+0.8 Tyler DuffeyMIN811+0.9 Dellin BetancesNYY1341+0.6 Fernando AbadBOS500+0.8 Carlos EstevezCOL100+0.2 John AxfordOAK120-0.6 Sammy SolisWSH120-0.6 Sean DoolittleOAK823+0.5 Corey KnebelMIL2652+2.0 Ryan TeperaTOR1420+1.5 Blaine BoyerBOS310+0.1 Edwin DiazSEA2141+1.7 Andrew Miller25214128 Donnie HartBAL313+0.1 Jeremy JeffressTEX131-0.9 Tyler WilsonBAL111-0.2 Jose AlvaradoTB743-0.4 Nate JonesCHW410+0.2 Brad ZieglerMIA412+0.2 Save leaders avoid many clutch pitching opportunitiesTop save pitchers through 2017 All-Star break Blake WoodCIN231-0.8 J. P. HowellTOR010-0.4 Joe BlantonWSH320-0.3 Bud NorrisLAA1160-0.5 Josh FieldsLAD321-0.3 Travis WoodKC331-0.6 We shouldn’t get too carried away here. With the possible exception of the Astros’ Chris Devenski — who leads the majors with 52.2 relief innings but whose effectiveness has diminished as the season has worn on — none of these pitchers are being used in the Goose Gossage mold of the 1970s, when star relievers often threw 100 or more innings in a season. This is particularly true for Jansen, whose workload has always been managed carefully. (He’s on pace for only 68 innings this year.) But if teams are still using pitchers such as Jansen, Rivero and the Indians’ Andrew Miller for only 60 to 80 innings a season, they’re increasingly picking the right innings for them to pitch. By contrast, closers such as the Rockies’ Greg Holland and the Twins’ Brandon Kintzler have rarely made fireman appearances but have often been used to close out big, relatively safe leads. Although they have more saves than pitchers like Jansen and Rivero, Holland and Kintzler have fewer goose eggs and have provided less overall value to their clubs. Dan AltavillaSEA331-0.6 Francisco RodriguezDET382-2.5 Jonathan HolderNYY311+0.1 Michael FelizHOU110-0.2 Dan JenningsCHW024-0.7 Koda GloverWSH822+0.4 Edubray RamosPHI2110-3.8 Miguel DiazSD010-0.4 Tyler LyonsSTL011-0.4 Jarlin GarciaMIA002+0.0 Santiago CasillaOAK1452+0.3 Kyle RyanDET210-0.1 Craig BreslowMIN010-0.4 Raisel IglesiasCIN2110+2.7 Eric O’FlahertyATL211-0.1 David RobertsonCHW1631+1.3 Daniel StumpfDET212-0.1 Justin HaleyMIN110-0.2 Josh EdginNYM525+0.0 Bryan MitchellNYY010-0.4 Tony SippHOU100+0.2 Phil MatonSD211-0.1 Kenley JansenLAD2501+3.6 Matt StrahmKC231-0.8 Miguel SocolovichSTL101+0.1 Matthew BowmanSTL1544+0.7 Carlos TorresMIL642-0.6 Andrew ChafinARI146-1.3 Jayson AquinoBAL010-0.4 Robbie RossBOS100+0.2 Brock StewartLAD200+0.3 Jason MotteATL212-0.1 Chris YoungKC100+0.2 Blake TreinenWSH441-0.9 Jeff BeliveauTOR100+0.2 Ty BlachSF101+0.1 Jacob TurnerWSH520+0.0 Logan VerrettBAL400+0.6 Brooks PoundersLAA100+0.2 Dodger closer Kenley Jansen has had a lights-out first half with a 4-0 record, a 0.96 ERA, 57 strikeouts and just two walks allowed in 37.2 innings pitched.He also has only 21 saves, which ranks seventh in the league through the All-Star break. But Jansen has been considerably more valuable to the Dodgers than those save numbers imply. That’s because Dodgers manager Dave Roberts has been deploying Jansen in high-leverage situations that other managers often shield their closers from. Jansen has made 10 multi-inning appearances so far this year. He’s been brought into the game with runners on base nine times. And he’s entered in tied games in eight appearances. l call all of these “firemen appearances” because they resemble how teams used their top relievers in the era a few decades ago when the best relievers were referred to as “firemen” instead of closers.These firemen appearances have not necessarily helped Jansen earn saves; a pitcher can’t earn a save when he enters in a tied game, for instance. But they do provide opportunities for him to earn goose eggs, the new relief-pitcher statistic that we developed this spring. (The short version: A pitcher gets a goose egg for a clutch, scoreless relief inning, including in a tied game.) Jansen has 25 goose eggs, which ties him for third this season. He and his fellow goose-egg leaders — including the Pirates’ Felipe Rivero, who leads MLB with 27 — are routinely making firemen appearances: Chad GreenNYY022-0.7 Ian KrolATL623+0.1 Adam OttavinoCOL1372-0.4 Alex WilsonDET1064-0.7 Matt BushTEX1561+0.2 Kenley Jansen25211089 PITCHER▲▼TEAM▲▼GOOSE EGGS▲▼BROKEN EGGS▲▼MEHS▲▼GWAR▲▼ David HernandezLAA811+0.9 Pedro BaezLAD734-0.1 Jose RamirezATL1241+0.3 Kevin QuackenbushSD110-0.2 PITCHERGOOSE EGGSSAVESMULTI-INNINGRUNNERS ONTIE GAMES James HoytHOU110-0.2 Matt BelisleMIN1333+0.9 Robert GsellmanNYM210-0.1 Ernesto FrieriTEX010-0.4 Sam FreemanATL502+0.7 Zach BrittonBAL600+0.9 Josh HaderMIL100+0.1 Jake JunisKC100+0.2 Giovanny GallegosNYY010-0.4 Jim JohnsonATL1761+0.3 Chris HatcherLAD121-0.6 Xavier CedenoTB013-0.4 Paul SewaldNYM122-0.6 Alec AsherBAL311+0.1 Alex WoodLAD301+0.4 Robert StephensonCIN220-0.4 Neil RamirezNYM012-0.4 Kelvin Herrera1619025 Ken Giles919151 Brent SuterMIL001+0.0 Check out our latest MLB predictions. Luis AvilanLAD222-0.5 Chris BeckCHW002+0.0 Mike MorinLAA101+0.2 Sam TuivailalaSTL320-0.3 Jake PetrickaCHW001+0.0 Hector NerisPHI1542+0.7 Jim Johnson1719206 Wily PeraltaMIL120-0.6 Alex Colome23259105 Ronald HerreraNYY010-0.4 Jose LeclercTEX522+0.1 2017 goose stats through All-Star break Al AlburquerqueKC010-0.4 Mark MelanconSF940-0.2 Carl EdwardsCHC1233+0.6 Brad HandSD2345+1.8 Heath HembreeBOS724+0.4 David PhelpsMIA1171-1.1 Kenyan MiddletonLAA210-0.1 Bruce RondonDET210-0.1 Archie BradleyARI2023+2.3 Brad BoxbergerTB100+0.2 T. J. McFarlandARI501+0.8 Hector SantiagoMIN010-0.4 Koji UeharaCHC1443+0.5 Jesse ChavezLAA010-0.4 Adam KolarekTB010-0.4 Goose-egg leaders pitch in clutch situations, but that doesn’t help earn savesTop goose-egg pitchers through 2017 All-Star break PITCHER▲▼TEAM▲▼GOOSE EGGS▲▼BROKEN EGGS▲▼MEHS▲▼GWAR▲▼ Brad Brach2115236 Antonio BastardoPIT010-0.4 Tommy HunterTB621+0.2 Tony BarnetteTEX630-0.1 Ben TaylorBOS101+0.2 Michael LorenzenCIN1931+1.7 Ken GilesHOU933+0.2 Brandon MorrowLAD010-0.4 Drew SteckenriderMIA010-0.4 Jeanmar GomezPHI721+0.3 Ryan PresslyMIN420-0.1 Jean MachiSEA101+0.2 Kelvin HerreraKC1642+1.1 Joe KellyBOS724+0.4 Ryan GartonTB030-1.1 Hunter StricklandSF1130+0.5 Source: Seamheads.com read more

Government House Welcome Reception for Commonwealth SecretaryGeneral the Rt Hon Patricia Scotland

first_imgFacebook Twitter Google+LinkedInPinterestWhatsApp Related Items: Facebook Twitter Google+LinkedInPinterestWhatsAppBahamas, July 20, 2017 – Nassau – Commonwealth Secretary-General the Rt. Hon. Patricia Scotland, QC, had a Courtesy Call with Governor General Her Excellency Dame Marguerite Pindling on Monday evening, July 17, 2017 at Government House.    Baroness Scotland, who is on an official visit to the Commonwealth of The Bahamas, was then given a Welcome Reception at Government House attended by government officials.Secretary-General Scotland is pictured (left) with the Governor General in the courtesy call, and also making an address of the reception audience, and enjoying the evening with the Governor General, Minister of Health the Hon. Duane Sands (left) and Director General of Foreign Affairs Sharon Brennen-Haylock (right).Press Release: BIS(BIS Photos/Patrick Hanna)last_img read more

Snyder signs landmark property rights package into law

first_img20Oct Snyder signs landmark property rights package into law Categories: Lucido News,Lucido Photos Lucido: Measures close loopholes to protect Michigan citizensGov. Snyder today signed into law a bipartisan bill package reforming Michigan’s civil asset forfeiture laws to create clear, reasonable standards for the sanctity of individual rights and the lawful seizure of property by authorities.House Judiciary Vice Chair Rep. Peter Lucido, R-Shelby Township, sponsored one of eight bills designed to address ethical and legal concerns with Michigan’s civil asset forfeiture laws.“It’s a great day in Lansing when you protect Michigan citizens because government does not exist to profit from the people,” Rep. Lucido said. “We’ve heard stories from across the nation of property unjustly seized and sold and this is unacceptable for our great state. With this package, we’ve brought transparency to the system, creating new reporting requirements for all government agencies involved in seizing property to ensure that innocent Michiganders are not treated like criminals.”Rep. Lucido’s bill raises the evidentiary standard for property forfeitures under the Public Health Code (drug crimes) from a “preponderance” to “clear and convincing” evidence. More specifically, the prosecuting attorney in these cases would have to prove a violation of the Public Health Code by clear and convincing evidence before property could be forfeited.“The current evidentiary standard is offensive to the American concept of private property rights and due process,” said Rep. Lucido. “This is common-sense legislation which closes loopholes and raises standards at the law enforcement and prosecutorial level making sure everyone is on the same page.”In the worst cases of civil asset forfeiture abuse, private property has been seized and kept by government officials even when the owner is never even charged with a crime, much less prosecuted or convicted.Rep. Lucido can be reached by phone at 517-373-0843, or by email at [email protected]###last_img read more

Interest rates could soon take off If we wrote th

first_imgInterest rates could soon take off.If we wrote this a few months ago, you might have thought we were crazy. That’s because the Federal Reserve’s done everything it can to avoid raising interest rates this year.In March, it didn’t raise rates because of a bad jobs report. In June, it held off due to concerns about the global economy and “market volatility.” In September, it didn’t raise rates because it’s waiting for the job market to improve.These are legitimate reasons to not raise rates…but the Fed also held off for another reason: the presidential election.You see, the Fed has held its key rate near zero since 2008. This made it incredibly cheap for households and businesses to borrow money. In many ways, the economy is now hooked on cheap money.At this point, the Fed could trigger a financial crisis or recession by raising rates. And that’s the last thing it wanted to do before the election.• With the election behind us, most people think the Fed will finally raise its key rate next month… To be fair, most investors have been preparing for a December rate hike since the summer. But now that Trump’s going to be president, it looks like rates could rise faster than people expected.You see, most people thought the Fed would raise rates slowly if Hillary won. But Trump has a much different plan for America.He wants to grow the economy using fiscal stimulus, which basically means government spending. Specifically, he wants to spend hundreds of billions fixing the country’s infrastructure.According to Bloomberg, Trump’s policy could force the Fed to jack up rates quicker than they would have under Hillary:“We do view the election of Donald Trump as a game changer,” said Adam Donaldson, head of debt research at Sydney-based Commonwealth Bank of Australia. “The strong bias toward fiscal expansion and inflationary policy represents a stark change to the malaise of recent years. This opens the door for the Fed to hike in December, but also more quickly in 2017 and 2018 than previously expected.”• This is a HUGE deal…  You see, interest rates aren’t some arbitrary number. They’re the price of money. A big move in interest rates affects everything from stocks to commodities.You also have to remember that almost no one thought Trump would win. The market didn’t “price in” rates rising quickly. That’s why we’ve seen big moves by every major financial asset since the election.Today, we’re going to show you how the prospect of rising interest rates is impacting different asset classes…starting with a sector that’s very sensitive to interest rates.• Utility stocks tanked after the election… The sector closed the week down 4.08%. Keep in mind the S&P 500 jumped 3.7% last week. According to Fidelity Investments, utilities were by far the worst-performing group in the S&P 500.Utilities provide electricity, gas, and water to people. They sell things that people can’t live without. This makes for relatively stable revenues, which allows them to pay steady dividends.Many investors own utility stocks specifically for their dependable dividends. That said, utility stocks aren’t as attractive when interest rates are high or likely to rise. That’s because investors can collect decent income in other assets, like bonds.If rates rise like many investors expect, utility stocks could keep falling.• Emerging market assets could also be in big trouble if rates head higher… As you probably know, it’s riskier to invest in emerging markets than in developed countries like the U.S. or Japan. To attract money, emerging markets offer higher returns.For example, Brazil’s 10-year government bond pays a 12.1% yield right now. That’s almost six times more than the 2.1% yield of the U.S. 10-year Treasury.If U.S. interest rates keep rising, U.S. investors could start pulling money out of emerging market assets. According to Reuters, this is already happening:Emerging market shares and currencies slumped on Friday as investors feared higher U.S. interest rates under incoming President Donald Trump will spark capital outflows…The most volatile trading on Friday was across emerging markets, as investors bet that Trump’s fiscal policies will be inflationary, push U.S. rates up and drive investors into dollar-based assets. The real risk here is doing nothing…Porter Stansberry says this could be the domino that starts it all… He’s recommending a strategy to bet AGAINST the most vulnerable companies as it all unfolds. Join him on Nov 16th, to hear how this approach works. – Recommended Links “Project Fedcoin” to Start January 1st?The U.S. dollar is in crisis. Fed members just wrapped up a special “behind-closed-doors” meeting to discuss one of the most dramatic changes to our money in the last 100 years. A change that not only affects how we spend, save, and earn… But that will also transform the very nature of “money” itself. This currency expert explains the shocking details here… — • The iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM) plummeted last week… EEM tracks emerging market stocks across the world. According to Bloomberg Markets, the fund suffered its worst day since 2011 on Thursday, when it experienced more than $1.5 billion in withdrawals.You can see it’s now down 8% since Election Day and trading at its lowest level since July.On Friday, Bloomberg Markets warned that emerging market stocks could head much lower in the coming days:“EM ETF flows are about to look like the elevator scene from The Shining as you have the double whammy of rising rates and an oncoming ‘America first’ trade policy,” writes Eric Balchunas, ETF Analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence. “We could see $20 billion in outflows by the end of next week.”• The anticipation of higher interest rates has hurt gold, too…  Last week, the price of gold fell 6.1%. It’s now trading at its lowest level since April.Like utilities, gold sold off due to expectations that interest rates will head higher. You see, unlike a bond, gold doesn’t pay interest. Because of this, many investors don’t like to own gold if they expect rates to rise. Of course, regular readers know the conventional wisdom about gold and interest rates is dead wrong.As we’ve pointed out many times, the price of gold has actually increased after the last four Fed rate hikes.You can see in the chart below that the price of gold jumped 20% in just six months when the Fed started raising rates in 2004.In other words, gold can still do very well if the Fed raises rates quickly…which is still a big “if” at this point.• You also have to remember that we don’t buy gold to make a quick profit… We own it because it’s real money and serves as the ultimate protection against financial chaos. And right now, there’s a lot of uncertainty about the economy and financial system.If you’re nervous about the economy, hold on to your gold. If you’re nervous about the financial system, hold on to your gold. If you’re nervous about our new president, hold on to your gold.Even a small gold position could save you from huge losses when the next financial crisis hits.If you would like to buy gold while it’s “on sale,” check out this presentation we recently put together. It reveals a “loophole” in the global gold market. In short, one of our analysts found what may be the cheapest way in America to buy gold.We can’t say how long this offer will last. So make sure to watch this video today if you’re thinking about buying gold. Click here to learn more.Regards,Justin SpittlerDelray Beach, FloridaNovember 14, 2016How to Hedge Against a Bear MarketEditor’s note: We’re continuing our special mini-series today featuring Stansberry Research founder Porter Stansberry.If you haven’t been following along, Porter says there are unprecedented warning signs in credit markets all around the world…The global scale of these problems means the coming crisis—what Porter has called “the greatest legal transfer of wealth in history”—will be truly historic. And folks who don’t see what’s coming could be wiped out. In fact, Porter says what’s about to happen in the markets will be worse than anything you’ve experienced as an investor…In today’s essay, Porter describes the best way to reduce your risk as this crisis unravels…(The following essay was published on November 14, 2016, in the Stansberry Digest.)From Porter Stansberry, founder, Stansberry Research***For most of the last 15 years, I’ve focused on building tools and advisories to help you avoid risk…You might not have thought of it that way, but that’s exactly what I’ve been doing.Just read almost any of the newsletters I (Porter) have written since 2001. You’ll immediately see that my Investment Advisory is primarily about mitigating investment risk. We do this by focusing our recommendations on safe, capital-efficient companies. Alongside this core portfolio, we add a few non-correlated hedge-like investments (such as Fannie and Freddie, which have soared lately). And we even hedge against the market directly with a small number of short-sell recommendations that ideally will “zig” when the rest of our portfolio “zags.”Long-term studies of our results prove this approach has created the best risk-adjusted returns of any letter we publish. (That’s the highest returns with the least amount of volatility.)***But today, I’m recommending the riskiest thing you can do with your money in the markets… There’s an enormous apparent dichotomy here. But… once you really understand this strategy, you’re going to see that there’s no divergence at all. At times, doing things that seem risky (like shorting a stock) are actually the best ways to reduce your portfolio’s risk exposure. Regardless whether you follow me with this particular strategy, I want to make sure you understand why I’m advocating that you take significant steps to hedge your portfolio today.***The biggest pitfall for most investors is the tendency to misjudge risk tolerance… Most subscribers who think they can handle lots of volatility really can’t. But if you’re reading this and you’re thinking, “That’s not me. I’m a conservative investor. I don’t take big risks with my portfolio,” I’d bet you’re wrong. Almost every investor I talk to about risk also underestimates the volatility of his or her own portfolio.Not you, though… right? Well, maybe. Think about your own investment experiences. What happened in your account from October 2008 through March 2009? Most people who would have sworn they were conservative investors ended up watching their life savings collapse by 50% or more. Most of them decided they weren’t “buy and hold” investors after all. (They ended up being “buy and fold” investors.) Holding too much risk inevitably trips up most investors.***Risk doesn’t equal reward…I also know from empirical studies of investment results that contrary to what just about every finance department in the country will teach you about finance, risk simply doesn’t equal reward.Lots of good research out there suggests that a strategy of buying well-financed, low-volatility stocks can beat the market by a wide margin.Plenty of real-life examples guide our thinking in this area, too. Investing legend Warren Buffett is a classic example. He made nearly 25% a year in the market between 1954 and 2000 by focusing on the least risky businesses to own, like insurer GEICO, beverage giant Coca-Cola (KO), and credit-card issuer American Express (AXP).It was a brilliant strategy. And it worked, primarily, because he avoided taking risks. He even sold almost all of his stocks in 1969 because he thought the market was too expensive. He didn’t buy back in until 1974. Do you think you could avoid making any equity investments for five years just because you thought the market was too risky?Editor’s note: We are on the precipice of an opportunity where betting against the biggest and most indebted companies in the U.S. could lead to life-changing profits. Porter is hosting a FREE live event on Wednesday night where he’ll lay out all of the details. Click here to reserve your spot.last_img read more